VIPCAT Publications and Presentations

Project Civil Strife Publications

“Disaggregating Actors in Intrastate Conflict” Stephen M. Shellman, Clare Hatfield, & Maggie Mills. Forthcoming in Journal of Peace Research 47(1), 2010.

“Machine Coding Nonstate Actors’ Behavior in Intrastate Conflict.” Stephen M. Shellman. Forthcoming in Political Analysis, 2008.

“The New School of Political Conflict: From Attributes to Behavior & Why Policymakers Will Care.” Will H. Moore & Stephen M. Shellman, 2008.

“Fair & Balanced or Fit to Print: The Effects of Source Bias on Event Data Analysis.” Stephen M. Shellman, Brandon Stewart, & Andrew Reeves, 2008. Revise & Resubmit.

“How Have You Killed Lately? A Substitution Model of Domestic Terrorism in India 1980-2005.” Victor Asal & Stephen M. Shellman, 2008. Revising for journal submission.  

“Nickel & DIMEing the Adversary: Does it work or PMESII them off?” Stephen M. Shellman, Cale D. Horne, and Brandon M Stewart, 2008. Presented at ISA in March, currently revising.

“Regional Sticks: The Effects of President’s Rule on Regional Terrorism in India, 1980-2005.” Victor H. Asal, Stephen M. Shellman, & Brandon Stewart. Presented at Peace Science in November 2008, currently revising.

“The New School of Political Conflict: From Attributes to Behavior & Why Policymakers Will Care.” Will H. Moore & Stephen M. Shellman, 2008. Under Review

“Process Matters: Conflict & Cooperation in Sequential Government-Dissident Interactions.” Stephen M. Shellman. Security Studies 15(4): 563-99, 2007

.“Leaders & Their Motivations: Explaining Government-Dissident Conflict-Cooperation Processes.” Stephen M. Shellman. Conflict Management & Peace Science 23(1): 73-90, 2006.

“Quantifying Violence and Nonviolence: Terrorism & Political Violence Datasets.” Stephen M. Shellman. E-Extreme Electronic Newsletter of the European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on Extremism & Democracy, 2006.

“Time Series Intervals and Statistical Inference: The Effects of Temporal Aggregation on Event Data Analysis.” Stephen M. Shellman. Political Analysis 12(1): 97-104, 2004.

“Measuring the Intensity of Intranational Political Interactions Event Data: Two Interval‑Like Scales.” Stephen M. Shellman. International Interactions 30(2): 109-141, 2004.

Intelligent Handling of Unstructured Text Publications

“Machine Coding Nonstate Actors’ Behavior in Intrastate Conflict.” Stephen M. Shellman, 2008. Forthcoming in Political Analysis.

S.E.V.E.R.E. Publications

“Supporting the Bomb: A Survey of Iranian Public Opinion.” Christine Fair & Stephen M. Shellman. Forthcoming in Contemporary Security Policy 25(3), 2008.

“Consenting to a Child’s Jihad.” Victor Asal, Christine Fair, & Stephen M. Shellman.  Forthcoming in Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 31(12), 2008.

Forced Migration Publications

“Three Decades of Forced Migration: From Emprirical Foundations to Policy Implications.” Andrea Arce-Trigatti, Will H. Moore, & Stephen M. Shellman, 2008. Working Manuscript.

“Whither Will They Go? A Global Study of Refugees’ Destinations, 1965-1995.” Will H. Moore & Stephen M. Shellman. International Studies Quarterly 51(4), 2007.

“Predicting Risk Factors Associated with Forced Migration: An Early Warning Model of Haitian Flight.” Stephen M. Shellman & Brandon Stewart. Civil Wars, 9(2): 174-99, 2007.

“Political Persecution or Economic Deprivation? A Time-Series Analysis of Haitian Migration to the United States” Stephen M. Shellman & Brandon Stewart. Conflict Management & Peace Science 24(2): 121-37, 2007.

“Refugee or Internally Displaced? To Where Should One Flee?” Will H. Moore & Stephen M. Shellman. Comparative Political Studies 39(5): 599-622, 2006.

“Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952-1995.” Will H. Moore & Stephen M. Shellman.  Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(5): 723-745, 2004.

Recent Invited Presentations on Project Civil Strife

“Project Civil Strife: Machine Coded Event Data.” Stephen M. Shellman. Presented at the Operating within the Human Dimension: the Collection/Analysis Challenge conference, sponsored by DOD (Joint Staff, STRATCOM/GISC, DDRE, OUSDI, AS&C) and DHS, April 24-25, 2008 .

“The Rational Terrorist.” Stephen M. Shellman. Terrorism Symposium, Shorter College, Rome, GA, March 4, 2008.

“Modeling Terror & Repression.” Stephen M. Shellman. Presented at the Modeling & Visualizing Conflict Conference, sponsored by the United States Department of Defense, Strategic Command, and Department of Homeland Security. January 23-25, 2008. 

How Have You Killed Lately? A Substitution Model of Terrorist Tactics In India 1980-2005.* Stephen M. Shellman. Columbia University International Politics Seminar, April 19, 2007.
*Also presented in the Department of Political Science at the University of South Carolina. February 2, 2007.

“Project Civil Strife: Political Violence and Terrorism Events Data Sets.” Stephen M. Shellman. American Political Science Association (APSA) Short Course on Conflict Data. Sponsored by the APSA Task Force on Political Violence & Terrorism. Philadelphia, PA, August 30, 2006.